Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020
Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-021-03914-4
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发表时间：
2021-08-26
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sen, Pei;Yamana, Teresa K.;Shaman, Jeffrey
2019冠状病毒病大流行在2020年期间扰乱了世界各地的卫生系统和经济，对美国的破坏性尤其大，美国在2020年报告的病例和死亡人数最多（1-3）。已经报告了造成观察到的发病率和死亡率的许多流行病学特征（4-8）；然而，美国新冠肺炎的总体负担和特征尚未得到全面量化。在这里，我们使用数据驱动的模型推理方法来模拟2020年美国郡县范围内的大流行，并估计支撑病毒动态的关键时变流行病学特性。2020年美国大流行的特点是全国确诊率从3月的11.3%（95%可信区间（CI）： 8.3-15.9%）上升到12月的24.5%（18.6-32.3%）。年末人群易感性为69.0%(63.6-75.4%)，表明美国约有三分之一的人口被感染。社区感染率（即感染传染病的人口比例）在年底前上升到0.8%以上（0.6-1.0%），在一些主要城市地区甚至高达2.4%。相比之下，到年底，感染致死率降至0.3%。
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States, which experienced the highest numbers of reported cases and deaths during 2020(1-3). Many of the epidemiological features responsible for observed rates of morbidity and mortality have been reported(4-8); however, the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States have not been comprehensively quantified. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the virus. The pandemic in the United States during 2020 was characterized by national ascertainment rates that increased from 11.3% (95% credible interval (CI): 8.3-15.9%) in March to 24.5% (18.6-32.3%) during December. Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6-75.4%), indicating that about one third of the US population had been infected. Community infectious rates, the percentage of people harbouring a contagious infection, increased above 0.8% (0.6-1.0%) before the end of the year, and were as high as 2.4% in some major metropolitan areas. By contrast, the infection fatality rate fell to 0.3% by year's end.