Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions
Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Criqui, Patrick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benveniste, Helene;Boucher, Olivier;Criqui, Patrick
《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方在第21次缔约方大会之前和之后提交的国家自主贡献总结了2025-2030年期间温室气体减排的国内目标。目前，在缺乏国家发展数据格式的详细指导方针的情况下，需要辅助数据来解释一些国家发展数据和预测2030年温室气体排放量。在这里，我们基于国家发展目标的唯一和全部成果，对不确定性来源及其对2030年全球温室气体排放的影响进行分析。我们估计，到2030年，NDCS预计将产生56.8-66.5GtCO(2)当量年(-1)排放量(90%可信区间)，高于先前的估计，具有更大的不确定性范围。尽管存在这些不确定因素，但国家发展中国家大力将温室气体排放量转移到新兴国家和发展中国家，并减少了国际人均温室气体排放量的不平等。最后，我们强调，如果要实现长期温度目标，目前的国家发展目标意味着2030年后的减排速度要比2010-2030年期间更大。我们的结果突出了对即将到来的“气候机制”的四个要求：关于未来国家发展中心设计的更清晰的框架，新兴国家和发展中国家更多地参与全球缓解努力，一个雄心勃勃的更新机制，以避免2030年后几乎不可行的脱碳率，以及预计2030年后全球排放量将大幅减少。
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8-66.5GtCO(2)eqyr(-1) emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming 'climate regime': a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.