Estimation of Redevelopment Probability using Panel Data : Asset Bubble Burst and Office Market in Tokyo
Estimation of Redevelopment Probability using Panel Data : Asset Bubble Burst and Office Market in Tokyo
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DOI：
10.1108/14635781011058893
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
C. Shimizu;K. Karato;Yasushi Asami
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Shimizu;K. Karato;Yasushi Asami
目的-当日本的资产泡沫破裂时，办公室空置率急剧上升。本研究旨在针对日本泡沫破裂时期东京23个特别区的写字楼市场。其目的是确定办公室重建/改建为住房的经济条件，并估计在这些条件下重建/改建的可能性。设计/方法/方式-土地用途转换的前提条件是，随后的利润不包括破坏和重建成本估计增加现有建筑物的现有水平。关于办公室和住房的享乐函数以及1991年用于办公室的大约40 000座建筑物的计算利润差距，预测了利润差距将如何影响土地用途转换的可能性。具体来说，使用20世纪90年代两个时间点的面板数据来检验重建/改建条件的重要性。结果-有人发现，如果随机效应被用来控制个别特征的建筑物，重建概率显着上升时，从土地重建后的利润预计将超过目前的土地利用。这种增长在城市的中心部分更大。研究限制/影响-限制源于日本的数据局限于办公室转换成住房的性质。今后，可能会开发一个模型，以概括土地用途转换的条件。独创性/价值-这是第一个研究，以指定的过程中出现的泡沫破裂的土地利用调整。这也是首次使用面板数据分析再开发条件的实证研究。
Purpose - When Japan's asset bubble burst, the office vacancy rate soared sharply. This study seeks to target the office market in Tokyo's 23 special wards during Japan's bubble burst period. It aims to define economic conditions for the redevelopment/conversion of offices into housing and estimate the redevelopment/conversion probability under the conditions. Design/methodology/approach - The precondition for land-use conversion is that subsequent profit excluding destruction and reconstruction costs is estimated to increase from the present level for existing buildings. Regarding hedonic functions for offices and housing and computed profit gaps for approximately 40,000 buildings used for offices in 1991, it was projected how the profit gaps would influence the land-use conversion probability. Specifically, panel data for two time points in the 1990s were used to examine the significance of redevelopment/conversion conditions. Findings - It was found that, if random effects are used to control for individual characteristics of buildings, the redevelopment probability rises significantly when profit from land after redevelopment is expected to exceed that from present land uses. This increase is larger in the central part of a city. Research limitations/implications - Limitations stem from the nature of Japanese data limited to the conversion of offices into housing. In the future, a model may be developed to generalize land-use conversion conditions. Originality/value - This is the first study to specify the process of land-use adjustments that emerged during the bubble burst. This is also the first empirical study using panel data to analyze conditions for redevelopment.