Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis
Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.004
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Gerdsri, Pisek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Daim, Tugrul U.;Rueda, Guillenno;Gerdsri, Pisek
由于没有历史数据，很难预测新兴技术。在这种情况下，使用文献计量学和专利分析提供了有用的数据。本文通过将文献计量学和专利分析方法与情景规划、增长曲线和类比等技术预测工具相结合，对三个新兴技术领域进行了预测。系统动力学也被用来模拟技术及其扩散的动态生态系统。预测的技术包括燃料电池、食品安全和光存储技术。这三个应用程序的结果帮助我们验证所提出的方法作为适当的工具来预测新兴技术。(c)2006爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.