Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model
Predictability and error growth dynamics of the Kuroshio Extension state transition process in an eddy-resolving regional ocean model
复制标题
涡分辨区域海洋模型中黑潮延伸状态转变过程的可预测性和误差增长动力学
DOI：
10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101659
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发表时间：
2020-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Kun Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Geng;Qiang Wang;Mu Mu;Kun Zhang
基于涡旋解析区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS）和条件非线性最优摄动（CNOP）方法，建立了一个非线性优化系统，研究了增长最快初始误差对黑潮扩展（KE）由稳定向不稳定过渡过程预测的影响。结果表明，cnop型增长最快初始误差较大的区域主要位于KE上游500 m以上。在此基础上，从误差的运动、维持和发展等方面探讨了误差增长的动力机制。结果表明，这些误差通过线性平流从日本南部向东输送到KE的第一次准平稳弯道。非线性平流减缓了这些误差的移动速度，导致它们在KE的第一次准平稳曲流中长期存在。在这种情况下，误差有足够的时间通过正压能量转换不断地吸收背景场的能量。最终，误差迅速增长，进一步导致KE强度的高估。
Based on an eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, we set up a nonlinear optimization system to investigate the effects of the fastest-growing initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) transition process from the stable to the unstable state. The results reveal that the larger values of the CNOP-type fastest-growing initial errors are mainly located upstream of the KE over the upper 500 m. Furthermore, the dynamic mechanism of the error growth is explored in terms of error movement, maintenance and development during the KE transition period. The results indicate that the errors are transported eastward from the south of Japan to the KE’s first quasi-stationary meander by linear advection. The nonlinear advection slows down the moving speed of these errors, leading to their long-term existence in the first quasi-stationary meander of the KE. In this situation, errors have enough time to absorb energy from the background field continuously through barotropic energy conversion. Ultimately, errors grow rapidly and further induce the overestimation of the KE strength.
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