The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1747-7379.2012.00890.x
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Zimmermann, Klaus F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Constant, Amelie F.;Zimmermann, Klaus F.
本文使用德国的面板数据研究东道国和母国之间的重复或循环迁移，区分产生单一迁移、循环迁移和吸收的因素。当移民首次抵达德国后，如果他们在祖国有社会和家庭纽带，他们更有可能提前离开，但如果他们在德国有工作并且语言良好，他们就不太可能离开。一旦外出，返回概率主要受汇款和家庭考虑的影响。东道国的职业培训和老龄化促进了循环移民。尽管男性移民返回祖国的可能性比女性移民高 9%，但性别对于预测返回德国的情况并不重要。
This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated, the return probability is mainly affected by remittances and family considerations. Circular migration is fostered by vocational training in the host country and older age. Whereas male migrants are 9 percent more likely to return to their home country than female migrants, gender is not significant for predicting the return to move back to Germany.