CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
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DOI：
10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
M. Prather
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Prather
抽象的。大气中二氧化碳的波动可以非常精确地测量，并用于确定人为驱动的来源以及海洋和陆地碳的自然循环。变化的一个来源是平流层，在那里，老化的二氧化碳耗尽的空气的流入可以在表面产生波动。这一过程被推测为CO2年际变化（IAV）的一个潜在来源，可能会掩盖IAV的其他来源的量化。鉴于最近的成功证明，平流层流入的N2O和氯氟烃耗尽的空气是其表面IAV在南半球的一个主要来源，我在这里采用相同的模型和测量分析CO2。使用化学运输建模或缩放所观察到的N2O的变化，我发现，平流层驱动的表面变化的CO2是最多10%的观测到的IAV，是不是一个重要的来源。通过年方差诊断CO2年周期的振幅及其从1985年到2021年的增加，得出的速率与北方半球（BRW、MLO）的传统方法相似，但可以识别小趋势的出现（0.08 ppm每十年）在南半球（SMO、CGO）。
Abstract. Fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 can be measured with great precision and are used to identify human-driven sources as well as natural cycles of ocean and land carbon. One source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can produce fluctuations at the surface. This process has been speculated to be a potential source of interannual variability (IAV) in CO2 that might obscure the quantification of other sources of IAV. Given the recent success in demonstrating that the stratospheric influx of N2O- and chlorofluorocarbon-depleted air is a dominant source of their surface IAV in the Southern Hemisphere, I apply the same model and measurement analysis here to CO2. Using chemistry-transport modeling or scaling of the observed N2O variability, I find that the stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is at most 10 % of the observed IAV and is not an important source. Diagnosing the amplitude of the CO2 annual cycle and its increase from 1985 to 2021 through the annual variance gives rates similar to traditional methods in the Northern Hemisphere (BRW, MLO) but can identify the emergence of small trends (0.08 ppm per decade) in the Southern Hemisphere (SMO, CGO).