Regime dependent changes in global precipitation
Regime dependent changes in global precipitation
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-011-1134-x
复制
发表时间：
2012-08
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
R. Allan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Allan
结合全球降水气候学项目和欧洲中期天气预报中期再分析中心的现有模拟和观测估计，对降水(P)的变化与地面温度(T)和500hPA垂直速度(ω)百分位数的函数进行了评估。与GPCP相比，模型有高估温暖、下沉区域的P值的趋势，在某些情况下高估了100%以上，而许多模型低估了中等温度区域的P值。考虑到1980年至1999年和2080年至2099年的气候变化预测，气候变化的响应特征是，在最冷的10-20%的陆点和温暖的上升洋点上，P/DT≥为4%/K，而在最温暖的下降区域上P下降(DP/DT∼和−为4%/KFOR模型集合平均值)。在热带潮湿和干燥地区，Walker环流的减少仅略微限制了这种反差的P/dT响应。当从动态机制的角度考虑P复合材料时，大约70%的全球表面积显示出一致的信号，在7元模型系综中至少有6个是P/dTiN。
Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (ω) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimatePin the warm, subsiding regimes compared to GPCP, in some cases by more than 100%, while many models underestimatePin the moderate temperature regimes. Considering climate change projections between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, responses inPare characterised bydP/dT≥ 4%/K over the coldest 10–20% of land points and over warm, ascending ocean points whilePdeclines over the warmest, descending regimes (dP/dT∼ − 4%/Kfor model ensemble means). The reduced Walker circulation limits this contrastingdP/dTresponse in the tropical wet and dry regimes only marginally. Around 70% of the global surface area exhibits a consistent sign fordP/dTin at least 6 out of a 7-member model ensemble when consideringPcomposites in terms of dynamic regime.