Economic Liberalization via IMF Structural Adjustment: Sowing the Seeds of Civil War?
Economic Liberalization via IMF Structural Adjustment: Sowing the Seeds of Civil War?
复制标题
通过国际货币基金组织结构调整实现经济自由化：播下内战的种子？
DOI：
10.1017/s0020818310000068
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Molly E. Bauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Hartzell;Matthew Hoddie;Molly E. Bauer
摘要以前的研究探讨了经济自由化对内战的影响，采用了开放的总体措施，并未能考虑到潜在的内生偏见。在这份研究报告中，我们建议对自由化与内战之间关系的研究进行两项改进。首先，强调这是系统地创造新的经济赢家和输家的过程，而不是特定程度的经济开放，有可能产生冲突，我们考虑了一种经常使用的经济自由化手段的影响：各国采用国际货币基金组织（IMF）的结构调整计划。其次，我们使用双变量概率单位模型来解决内分泌偏倚的问题。通过分析1970年至1999年期间的所有数据，我们确定了国际货币基金组织计划的采用与内战爆发之间的关联。这一发现表明，国际货币基金组织促进经济开放的计划可能无意中创造了一个有利于国内冲突的环境。
Abstract Previous studies that have explored the effects of economic liberalization on civil war have employed aggregate measures of openness and have failed to account for potential endogeneity bias. In this research note, we suggest two improvements to the study of the relationship between liberalization and civil war. First, emphasizing that it is processes that systematically create new economic winners and losers rather than particular levels of economic openness that have the potential to generate conflict, we consider the effects of one oft-used means of liberalizing economies: the adoption by countries of International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment programs. Second, we use a bivariate probit model to address issues of endogeneity bias. Analyzing all data available for the period between 1970 and 1999, we identify an association between the adoption of IMF programs and the onset of civil war. This finding suggests that IMF programs to promote economic openness unintentionally may be creating an environment conducive to domestic conflict.