Reply to 'Emissions from cattle farming in Brazil'
Reply to 'Emissions from cattle farming in Brazil'
复制标题
回复“巴西养牛业的排放”
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3124
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
De Oliveira Silva R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Oliveira Silva R
古拉特等人。对我们的研究背景、建模假设和数据进行一些有趣的观察。我们澄清这些问题，但反驳说我们的研究不现实或具有误导性。事实上，我们对一些假设持保守态度，强调我们提出的违反直觉的结果是可能且合理的。在提及可持续农业集约化（SAI）时，我们注意到该概念的争议性质，并不意味着对该术语的全面描述。这包括在更细致的缓解研究中无疑会遇到的公平和治理权衡。我们的贡献提供了一个以有意义的规模开发的合理 SAI 场景的数学示例。我们希望它在一定程度上填补了文献中的一个明显空白，该空白主要由规范性概念论文组成，而不是可能形成政策证据的“基于经验的机制”。我们建议这些情景基于我们的补充信息中引用的可靠的经验证据。这包括最近观察到的脱钩牲畜毁林 (DLD) 情景，该情景是由于更严格的毁林控制和不断变化的市场环境造成的1, 2。DLD 与耦合牲畜毁林情景形成对比，后者包含关于毁林如何响应需求的最坏情况假设。我们认为这些可能会适应潜在的杰文斯悖论效应。
Goulart et al. make some interesting observations about the context of our study, its modelling assumptions and data. We clarify these issues but refute that our study is unrealistic or misleading. Indeed, we have been conservative with some assumptions and it would be possible and plausible to accentuate the counterintuitive result we present.In our reference to sustainable agricultural intensification (SAI) we note the contested nature of the concept and do not imply a comprehensive characterization of the term. This includes the equity and governance trade-offs undoubtedly encountered in more granular research on mitigation. Our contribution provides one mathematical example of a plausible SAI scenario developed at a meaningful scale. We hope it partly fills a conspicuous gap in the literature, largely populated by normative conceptual papers rather than ‘empirically based mechanisms’ that might form policy evidence. We suggest that the scenarios are based on sound empirical evidence, referenced in our supplementary information. This includes the recently observed decoupled livestock deforestation (DLD) scenario that resulted from more rigorous deforestation control and a changing market environment1, 2. The DLD contrasts with the coupled livestock deforestation scenarios, which encompass worst case assumptions about how deforestation responds to demand. We suggest these are likely to accommodate potential Jevons paradox effects.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Assad, E. D.;Pinto, H. S.;Martinelli, L. A.
通讯作者：
Martinelli, L. A.