Coupling fuzzy clustering and cellular automata based on local maxima of development potential to model urban emergence and expansion in economic development zones
Coupling fuzzy clustering and cellular automata based on local maxima of development potential to model urban emergence and expansion in economic development zones
复制标题
基于发展潜力局部最大值的模糊聚类和元胞自动机耦合模拟经济开发区的城市出现和扩张
DOI：
10.1080/13658816.2020.1741591
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-23
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Chen, Guangzhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liang, Xun;Liu, Xiaoping;Chen, Guangzhao
经济开发区的城市增长模型可以帮助规划者为这些地区确定合适的土地政策。然而，有时经济特区建立在没有历史城区的中心城市以外的偏远地区。现有的模型无法模拟经济开发区中没有历史城市用地的城市地区的出现。在这项研究中，基于模糊聚类的元胞自动机（CA）模型的开发，以解决这个问题。该模型是通过耦合一个无监督的分类方法和一个修改后的CA模型与城市涌现机制的基础上局部最大值。通过对规划政策和现有基础设施的分析，该模型可以检测出潜在的启动区，并模拟独立于历史城市土地利用的城市增长轨迹。该方法在2013年至2019年中国大连太平湾开发区的城市涌现模拟中得到了验证。该模型适用于2019-2030年的未来模拟。研究结果表明，该模型可用于预测城市崛起，生成未来可能的城市形态，为经济开发区规划者确定城市布局和控制城市增长提供依据。
ABSTRACT Modeling urban growth in Economic development zones (EDZs) can help planners determine appropriate land policies for these regions. However, sometimes EDZs are established in remote areas outside of central cities that have no historical urban areas. Existing models are unable to simulate the emergence of urban areas without historical urban land in EDZs. In this study, a cellular automaton (CA) model based on fuzzy clustering is developed to address this issue. This model is implemented by coupling an unsupervised classification method and a modified CA model with an urban emergence mechanism based on local maxima. Through an analysis of the planning policies and existing infrastructure, the proposed model can detect the potential start zones and simulate the trajectory of urban growth independent of the historical urban land use. The method is validated in the urban emergence simulation of the Taiping Bay development zone in Dalian, China from 2013 to 2019. The proposed model is applied to future simulation in 2019–2030. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can be used to predict urban emergence and generate the possible future urban form, which will assist planners in determining the urban layout and controlling urban growth in EDZs.