A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen
A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2148-6-72
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发表时间：
2006-09-20
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Culham, Alastair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yesson, Chris;Culham, Alastair
背景：全球气候变化对植物分布、物种形成和灭绝的影响是当前人们关注的问题。通过生物气候生态位模型研究物种的气候偏好是研究这种影响的关键工具。生物气候生态位模型和系统发育多样性之间存在着既定的联系。下一步是从系统发育的角度研究未来的分布预测。我们提出了这样一个研究仙客来（桃金娘科），一组表现出形态和物候适应其季节性地中海型气候。预测的气候变化将如何影响这种受欢迎的园林植物属的未来分布？结果如下：我们展示了一些气候特征的系统发育结构，并表明大多数仙客来有不同的气候生态位，除了几个广泛的，地理上广阔的物种。我们重建假设的祖先仙客来的气候偏好。仙客来的祖先偏爱地中海季节性气候，夏季干燥，冬季潮湿。未来的生物气候生态位，BIOCLIM和Maxent模型的基础上，检查参考未来的气候情景为2050年代。在未来50年里，我们预测气候适宜性区域将向北移动，目前分布的许多地区将变得气候不适宜。每种仙客来的气候适宜面积预计将减少。对于许多物种来说，可能没有适合气候的地区，无论扩散能力如何，这些物种都被认为处于灭绝的高风险之中。从系统发育的角度来看，这种风险进行了检查。结论：检查生物气候生态位从系统发育的角度允许这些模型的新的解释。特别是，祖先生态位的重建可以提供关于谱系历史发展的可检验的假说。在未来，我们可以预期仙客来属的气候适宜性将向北转移。如果事实证明是这样的话，那么传播是最好的生存机会，这对于蚂蚁传播的仙客来来说似乎不太可能。人工辅助建立仙客来物种远离其原生范围提供了希望，并可能提供传播到潜在的合适的未来环境的唯一手段。即使没有人类的干预，系统发育的观点表明，即使许多物种消失，主要的谱系也可以在气候变化中生存下来。
Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants?Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective.Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.