Disasters Ever More? Reducing U.S. Vulnerabilities
Disasters Ever More? Reducing U.S. Vulnerabilities
复制标题
灾难越来越多吗？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Perrow
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Perrow
在过去的25年里，美国的自然灾害、意外灾害（主要是工业和技术灾害）和人为灾害在数量和强度上都有所增加2（见图32.1）。在美国，我们可以预防一些灾害，减轻一些灾害，但我们无法逃避它们。目前，我们的重点是保护目标和减轻后果，我们应该尽力做到这一点。但是，我们的组织根本无法应对日益增多的灾难带来的挑战。我们能做的更有利的事情是缩小目标的规模，也就是说，减少在危险物质中发现的能量的集中，在重要组织中的权力的集中，以及在危险地点的人员的集中。自然灾害、工业事故或恐怖分子瞄准的更小、更分散的目标将导致更少的死亡和更少的经济和社会混乱。
Natural disasters, unintended disasters (largely industrial and technological), and deliberate disasters have all increased in number and intensity in the United States in the last quarter century2(see Figure 32.1) In the United States we may prevent some and mitigate some, but we can’t escape them. At present, we focus on protecting the targets and mitigating the consequences, and we should do our best at that. But our organizations are simply not up to the challenge from the increasing number of disasters. What we can more profitably do is reduce the size of the targets, that is, reduce the concentrations of energy found in hazardous materials, the concentration of power in vital organizations, and the concentrations of humans in risky locations. Smaller, dispersed targets of nature’s wrath, industrial accidents, or terrorist’s aim will kill fewer and cause less economic and social disruption.