Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?
Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15081
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发表时间：
2020-05-07
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Grant, Alastair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fernandes, Jose A.;Rutterford, Louise;Grant, Alastair
已经使用统计模型和基于过程的模型模拟了鱼类丰度和分布因气候变化而发生的大规模和长期变化。然而，国家和区域渔业管理还需要在较小的空间尺度上进行较短期的预测，这些预测需要根据渔业数据加以验证。东北大西洋26年高空间分辨率鱼类调查时间序列提供了一个独特的机会，可以评估模型正确模拟因气候变异和变化而发生的鱼类分布和丰度变化的能力。我们使用一个动态的生物气候包络模型，迫使从8个海洋模型的物理-地球化学输出模拟鱼类丰度和分布的变化，在尺度下降到0.5度的空间分辨率。当将这些模拟与年度鱼类调查数据进行比较时，我们发现在0.5度范围内的差异最大。当结果汇总到更大的尺度（例如整个北海），总渔获量而不是单个物种，或者当使用集合平均值而不是单个模拟时，由不同生物地球化学模型驱动的渔业模型运行之间的差异急剧减少。最近在生物地球化学模型的保真度的改善转化为较低的错误率在渔业模拟。然而，根据不同的海洋地球化学模型作出的预测往往比它们与调查数据的预测更为相似，但一些远洋物种除外。我们的结论是，模型结果可用于指导更大空间尺度的渔业管理，但在较小尺度上需要更加谨慎。
Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5 degrees scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.