Modeling of land use and land cover change dynamics for future projection of the Amazon number curve
Modeling of land use and land cover change dynamics for future projection of the Amazon number curve
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152348
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发表时间：
2021-12-22
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
de Oliveira Junior, Jose Francisco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cruz, Josias da Silva;Cavalcante Blanco, Claudio Jose;de Oliveira Junior, Jose Francisco
水文参数曲线数（CN）预计在未来的30米空间分辨率网格亚马逊。通过DINAMICA EGO平台，对2049年的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）进行了校准、模拟、验证和预测，从2009年开始为期五年。MapBiomas 5.0项目的2009年、2014年和2019年重新分类的LULC被用作DINAMICA EGO的输入。使用2009年和2014年地图以及2014年模拟地图进行校准;使用2014年地图、2019年和2019年模拟地图进行验证。在定标中，除塔帕霍斯在255 m空间分辨率下的相似度为40%外，各流域模型的多窗口相似度均在50%以上。验证值范围在36%和76%之间的空间分辨率为255米。关于氯化萘的未来预测，亚马逊地区的平均氯化萘为77。氯化萘的最高值出现在辛古、塔帕霍斯、马德拉盆地的南部地区，以及阿拉瓜亚和托坎廷斯盆地的整个地区。到2049年，由于森林转化为牧场/农业，该亚马逊地区的高氯化萘面积将增加，这意味着径流量和洪水量将增加，包括城市地区，城市地区也将扩大。这些洪水将加剧那些已经发生在亚马逊地区的洪水。
The hydrological parameter Curve Number (CN) was projected in the future in a 30 m spatial resolution grid for the Amazon. Through the DINAMICA EGO platform, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) were calibrated, simulated, validated, and projected for 2049 in a five-year time frame from 2009. The reclassified LULCs of 2009, 2014, and 2019 of the MapBiomas 5.0 project were used as input to DINAMICA EGO. Calibration was prepared using the 2009 and 2014 maps and the 2014 simulated map; the validation was carried out using the 2014 map, 2019, and 2019 simulated. In the calibration, the multiple window similarity values were all above 50% for the models of each basin, except for the Tapajos which was 40% in spatial resolution of 255 m. Validation values ranged between 36% and 76% at a spatial resolution of 255 m. Concerning the future projection of CN, the average CN of the Amazon region is equal to 77. The highest values of CN were found in the southern regions of the basins of the Xingu, Tapajos, Madeira, and throughout the basins of the Araguaia and Tocantins. In this Amazon region, in 2049, the areas of high CN will increase due to forest conversion to pasture/agriculture, implying larger runoff and flooding, including the urban areas, which will also expand. These floods will be intensified concerning those that already occur in the Amazon.