Inter-Temporal Correlation Structure of Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: An Application of the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Model.
Inter-Temporal Correlation Structure of Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: An Application of the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Model.
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2699934
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发表时间：
2015-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Srinjoy Ganguly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Srinjoy Ganguly
One can unequivocally concede that we exist in a world of ‘unequal’ microeconomic units, with the disparities in the technological prowess among various nations serving as a prime example of this hegemony. Given the dense network of trade & knowledge flow the different countries find themselves embedded in, the interdependencies among the countries are in fact primarily non-linear with spill-over effects of different macroeconomic variables contributing to the heterogeneity. One such critical variable would be technological evolution wherein a set of countries would be more evolved than the others, wherein the countries belonging to the latter category (imitators/predators) would attempt to pilfer the know-how of the former category (innovators/prey). Taking a leaf out of evolutionary biology, it is indeed possible to model the interactions among a large set of countries, comprising of both predators and preys, so as to map the impact of the trickle-down effects of technology with regard to its effects on partner economies. Thus, by leveraging upon the Lotka-Volterra model, this report intends to not only trace the lagged diffusion of technology on a global scale, but also quantify the cross-correlation structure for a system of countries. The results pertaining to the stated simulations for the annual per capita GDP data of the G-7 countries are presented in this report, coupled with a demystification of the implications entailed therein.
