Decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes
Decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haarsma, Reindert J.;Selten, Frank M.;Drijfhout, Sybren S.
我们使用最先进的全球气候模型和观测结果表明，由于全球变暖，不列颠群岛预计的较高压力是大气对大西洋纬向翻转环流（AMOC）减速的反应的一部分，导致相关的向北热量输送减少，使北大西洋相对凉爽。然而，预测的AMOC减弱的相当大的模型间差异导致预测的风变化的大范围。因此，预测海洋热输送减少的不确定性是西欧气候变化预测不确定性的主要来源。因此，对欧洲夏季气候的更好的约束预测在很大程度上依赖于气候模式中海洋过程的更现实的表示。
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.