Equilibrium of species' distributions with climate
Equilibrium of species' distributions with climate
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DOI：
10.1111/j.2005.0906-7590.04253.x
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发表时间：
2005-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Pearson, RG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Araújo, MB;Pearson, RG
物种分布与当前气候平衡的程度是生态学文献中的一个重要问题（Davis 1986，Gaston 2003）。区分现在和过去气候在决定物种分布中的相对作用不仅具有理论意义，而且是理解物种对气候变化响应的关键。最近的研究表明，欧洲树木分布与当前气候的平衡状态有很大的偏离（Sven-ning和Skov，2004年），但可以预期，不同生物之间的平衡程度存在差异，这些生物的传播能力（从而跟踪气候条件变化的能力）差异很大。在这里，我们评估的差异，平衡之间的今天的气候和维管植物，繁殖鸟类，两栖动物和爬行动物组合在欧洲。我们的分析包括所有已知的欧洲繁殖鸟类（Hagemeijer和Blair，1997）、两栖动物和爬行动物（Gasc等人，1997）以及约20%的欧洲维管植物群（Jalas和Suominen，1972-1996;拉赫蒂和Lampinen，1999）。植物和繁殖鸟类的组合被认为是相对更接近平衡比爬行动物和两栖动物的组合。结果表明，植物和鸟类物种对气候变化的反应更有可能通过将当今分布与气候相关联的模型进行准确预测，而爬行动物和两栖动物物种将最不能够改变分布，使它们最容易受到快速环境变化的影响。如果物种出现在所有气候适宜的地区，而在所有气候适宜的地区都没有，不合适的（哈钦森，1957）。在许多适宜的地区没有物种的观察是微不足道的。关键问题是电流分布离平衡有多远。准确的估计
The degree to which species' distributions are at equilibrium with current climate is an important issue in the ecological literature (Davis 1986, Gaston 2003). Distin-guishing the relative roles of present and past climates in determining species' distributions is not only of theoretical interest, but is key to understanding responses of species to climate change. Recent work has demonstrated significant departures from equilibrium with current climate for tree distributions in Europe (Sven-ning and Skov 2004), yet differences in the degree of equilibrium can be expected across organisms whose dispersal abilities (and hence ability to track changing climate conditions) vary greatly. Here we assess differ-ences in equilibrium between present-day climate and vascular plant, breeding bird, amphibian and reptile assemblages in Europe. Our analyses included all know European species of breeding birds (Hagemeijer and Blair 1997), amphibians and reptiles (Gasc et al. 1997), and ca 20% of the European vascular flora (Jalas and Suominen 1972-1996, Lahti and Lampinen 1999). Assemblages of plants and breeding birds were found to be relatively closer to equilibrium than assemblages of reptiles and amphibians. Results suggest that responses of plant and bird species to climate change are more likely to be accurately forecasted by models correlating present-day distributions with climate, and that reptile and amphibian species will be least capable of shifting distributions, making them most vulnerable to rapid environmental changes.Species are said to be at equilibrium with climate if they occur in all climatically suitable areas whilst being absent from all unsuitable ones (Hutchinson 1957). The observation that species are absent from many suitable areas is trivial. The critical question is how distant from equilibrium are current distributions. Accurate estimates