AN INTRANSITIVE EXPECTATIONS-BASED BAYESIAN VARIANT OF PROSPECT-THEORY
AN INTRANSITIVE EXPECTATIONS-BASED BAYESIAN VARIANT OF PROSPECT-THEORY
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DOI：
10.1007/bf00057567
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发表时间：
1992-05-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
BORDLEY, RF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BORDLEY, RF
心理学实验已经证实，经典的期望实用新型似乎描述不足。维斯库西的前瞻性参考理论试图将期望效用模型与许多这样的实验相调和，他假设个人对他们从彩票支付中期望得到的效用有预先的期望。贝叶斯理论表明，在选择彩票之前，个体根据这些先验期望来修改彩票概率，以最大化预期效用。但维斯库西的理论不能解释非单调或不可传递的行为。本文发展了Viscusi模型的一个扩展，该模型具有相关的先验信念，可以解释非单调和不可传递的行为。
Psychological experiments have established that the classical expected utility model appears descriptive inadequate. Viscusi's prospective reference theory attempts to reconcile the expected utility model with many of these experiments by supposing that individuals have prior expectations about the utility they can expect to get from lottery payoffs. Bayesian theory then implies that individuals revise lottery probabilities in light of these prior expectations before choosing among lotteries so as to maximize expected utility. But Viscusi's theory cannot account for nonmonotonic or intransitive behavior. This article develops an extension of Viscusi's model with correlated prior beliefs that does account for nonmonotonic and intransitive behavior.