Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach
Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach
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DOI：
10.3390/en10010051
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Sorrell, Steve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brockway, Paul E.;Saunders, Harry;Sorrell, Steve
150 年前，斯坦利·杰文斯 (Stanley Jevons) 引入了能源反弹的概念：预期的能源效率节省可能会通过行为反应“收回”。这是当今的一个重要问题，因为如果能源反弹显着，这将妨碍旨在减少能源使用和相关碳排放的能源效率政策的有效性。然而，估计国家能源反弹的实证研究很少，也许因此，能源经济模型和相关政策中很大程度上忽略了反弹。一个显着的困难在于实证研究评估能源反弹的组成部分：大多数研究的是静态经济的直接和间接反弹，排除了国民经济长期结构性反应的潜在显着反弹。为此，我们开发了一种新颖的基于㶲的方法来估计英国和美国（1980-2010）以及中国（1981-2010）的国家能源反弹。火用作为“可用能源”，可以为国家级能源效率提供一致的、基于热力学的指标。我们发现中国的能源大幅反弹，这表明中国能源效率的提高可能与能源消耗的增加有关（“适得其反”）。相反，我们发现英国和美国的能源反弹（部分）要低得多。这些发现支持这样的假设：除非实施其他政策措施（例如碳税），否则生产方经济体（例如中国）可能会出现大幅能源反弹，从而降低能源效率的有效性。如果能源效率政策（由于反弹）无法实现为实现气候目标而设想的能源削减规模，那么它还提出了我们需要比当前计划更快地部署可再生能源的前景。
150 years ago, Stanley Jevons introduced the concept of energy rebound: that anticipated energy efficiency savings may be "taken back" by behavioural responses. This is an important issue today because, if energy rebound is significant, this would hamper the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies aimed at reducing energy use and associated carbon emissions. However, empirical studies which estimate national energy rebound are rare and, perhaps as a result, rebound is largely ignored in energy-economy models and associated policy. A significant difficulty lies in the components of energy rebound assessed in empirical studies: most examine direct and indirect rebound in the static economy, excluding potentially significant rebound of the longer term structural response of the national economy. In response, we develop a novel exergy-based approach to estimate national energy rebound for the UK and US (1980-2010) and China (1981-2010). Exergy-as "available energy"-allows a consistent, thermodynamic-based metric for national-level energy efficiency. We find large energy rebound in China, suggesting that improvements in China's energy efficiency may be associated with increased energy consumption ("backfire"). Conversely, we find much lower (partial) energy rebound for the case of the UK and US. These findings support the hypothesis that producer-sided economies (such as China) may exhibit large energy rebound, reducing the effectiveness of energy efficiency, unless other policy measures (e.g., carbon taxes) are implemented. It also raises the prospect we need to deploy renewable energy sources faster than currently planned, if (due to rebound) energy efficiency policies cannot deliver the scale of energy reduction envisaged to meet climate targets.