The Great Moderation in Micro Labor Earnings
The Great Moderation in Micro Labor Earnings
复制标题
微观劳动收入大幅放缓
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1313656
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jae Song
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Sabelhaus;Jae Song
从1980年到1990年代初，黄金年龄段劳动力收入增长率的变异性显著下降。这种下降和时间与其他宏观和微观的增长变化观察一致，这些变化被统称为“大缓和”。“收入增长的变化在任何时候都与年龄呈负相关，而美国工作年龄人口在此期间变老，因为婴儿潮正在老龄化。然而，所有年龄组的变异性下降大致相同，因此人口老龄化不是整体下降的原因。对数变化的方差也以多年频率下降，表明收入冲击的永久性和暂时性组成部分变得更加温和。一个简单的识别策略，分离年龄和队列的影响显示了一个非常直观的模式，在生命周期的永久性和短暂的冲击，并证实，随着时间的推移，在随机过程中发生的变化，即使在控制年龄的影响。
Between 1980 and the early 1990s the variability of labor earnings growth rates across the prime-age working population fell significantly. This decline and timing are consistent with other macro and micro observations about growth variability that are collectively referred to as the "Great Moderation." The variability of earnings growth is negatively correlated with age at any point in time, and the U.S. working age population got older during this period because the Baby Boom was aging. However, the decrease in variability was roughly uniform across all age groups, so population aging is not the source of the overall decline. The variance of log changes also declined at multi-year frequencies in such a way as to suggest that both permanent and transitory components of earnings shocks became more moderate. A simple identification strategy for separating age and cohort effects shows a very intuitive pattern of permanent and transitory shocks over the life cycle, and confirms that a shift over time in the stochastic process occurred even after controlling for age effects.
整个生命周期的工资风险和就业风险
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Low H
通讯作者：
Low H