Probability of coincident vaccination in the 24 or 48 hours preceding sudden infant death syndrome death in Australia
Probability of coincident vaccination in the 24 or 48 hours preceding sudden infant death syndrome death in Australia
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DOI：
10.1542/peds.2004-2185
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Burgess, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brotherton, JML;Hull, BP;Burgess, MA
目标。接种疫苗不会引起婴儿猝死综合症（SIDS）。然而，小岛屿发展中国家在2个月大时达到高峰，此时经常接种疫苗。目前还没有公布的利用死亡年龄和免疫覆盖率人口数据的估计，向从业人员表明巧合接种疫苗的频率有多高。这项研究旨在确定死于小岛屿发展中国家的澳大利亚婴儿在死前几天接种疫苗的可能性。对2002年4月1日至2003年3月31日期间出生的澳大利亚儿童的人口死亡数据和免疫接种覆盖率进行了分析研究。还评估了1997年至2001年间登记为死于小岛屿发展中国家的澳大利亚儿童。测量的主要结果是小岛屿发展中国家死亡人数按年龄分布和免疫覆盖率按年龄分布。最近接种疫苗和小岛屿发展中国家同时发生的可能性因年龄和死亡周的日期而异。在澳大利亚，死于小岛屿发展中国家的儿童在过去24小时内接种疫苗的总体估计概率为1.3%。在过去的48小时里，它是2.6%。1997-2001年期间，小岛屿发展中国家的平均死亡人数为每年130例，我们估计，每年1.7例小岛屿发展中国家在过去24小时内接种疫苗，每年3.5例小岛屿发展中国家在48小时内接种疫苗。虽然同时接种疫苗和小岛屿发展中国家不应该是一个经常出现的问题，但在澳大利亚，它至少每年都会偶然发生。本研究中估计的按年龄分列的疫苗接种概率也可用于估计患有任何异常疾病或死亡的儿童接种疫苗的概率，当这些事件已知与疫苗接种无关时。
Objective. Vaccination does not cause sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). However, SIDS peaks at 2 months of age, when vaccination encounters are frequent. There are no published estimates using population data on age of death and immunization coverage to indicate to practitioners how often coincident vaccination may occur by chance. This study aimed to determine the probability that an Australian infant who has died of SIDS was vaccinated in the days before death.Methods. An analytical study of population death data and immunization coverage was conducted for Australian children who were born between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2003. Also evaluated were Australian children who were registered as dying of SIDS between 1997 and 2001. The main outcomes measured were distribution of SIDS deaths by age and distribution of immunization coverage by age.Results. The probability of recent vaccination and SIDS coinciding varied by age and day of the week of death. The overall estimated probability of vaccination within the last 24 hours for a child who has died of SIDS in Australia is estimated as 1.3%. In the last 48 hours, it is 2.6%. With the average number of SIDS deaths for the period 1997-2001 equal to 130 cases per year, we estimated that a case of SIDS will occur when vaccination was given in the last 24 hours in 1.7 cases per year and within 48 hours in 3.5 cases.Conclusions. Although coincident vaccination and SIDS should not be a frequent problem, it can be expected to occur at least annually in Australia by chance alone. The probabilities of vaccination by age estimated in this study can also be applied to estimate the probability of a vaccination encounter for children who have experienced any unusual medical condition or death, when these occurrences are known to be unrelated to vaccination.