Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European forests, 1990-2100
Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European forests, 1990-2100
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DOI：
10.4141/s05-078
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发表时间：
2006-04-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Kankaanpaa, Susanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, Pete;Smith, Jo;Kankaanpaa, Susanna
森林是欧洲的主要土地用途，欧洲森林土壤中的碳含量与树木生物量大致相同。森林土壤碳库大小的变化可能会对欧洲的碳预算产生重大影响。我们首次使用专门的基于过程的SOC模型和最先进的驱动变量数据库对欧洲森林土壤有机碳(SOC)储量的未来变化进行了评估。欧洲的土壤碳变化是使用Rothamsted碳模型计算的，该模型使用了四个气候模型的气候数据，这些气候模型受到四个政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)排放情景(SRES)的强制。考虑到了森林管理对土壤的凋落物输入的变化、净初级生产力(NPP)的预计变化、森林年龄级结构以及森林面积的变化。结果仅针对矿物土壤给出。在一些气候情景下，21世纪欧洲森林土壤中的碳将略有增加(0.1至4.6 PG)，而在一种情景下，森林SOC储量预计将减少0.3 PG。不同的地区出现了不同的趋势。气候变化将加速分解，而由于NPP的增加和年龄级结构的变化而增加的凋落物投入将减缓SOC的损失。森林面积的增加可能会进一步增加欧洲森林的总土壤碳储量。虽然气候变化将是森林土壤碳变化的关键驱动因素，但估计年龄级结构和土地利用变化的影响更大。
Forests are a major land use in Europe, and European forest soils contain about the same amount of carbon as is found in tree biomass. Changes in the size of the forest soil carbon pool could have significant impacts on the European carbon budget. We present the first assessment of future changes in European forest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of driving variables. Soil carbon change was calculated for Europe using the Rothamsted Carbon model using climate data from four climate models, forced by four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in litter input to the soil due to forest management, projected changes in net primary production (NPP), forest age-class structure, and changes in forest area were taken into account. Results are presented for mineral soil only. Under some climate scenarios carbon in forest soils will increase slightly (0.1 to 4.6 Pg) in Europe over the 21st Century, whilst for one scenario, forest SOC stocks are predicted to decrease by 0.3 Pg. Different trends are seen in different regions. Climate change will tend to speed decomposition, whereas increases in litter input due to increasing NPP and changing age-class structure will slow the loss of SOC. Increases in forest area could further enhance the total soil carbon stock of European forests. Whilst climate change will be a key driver of change in forest soil carbon, changes in age-class structure and land-use change are estimated to have greater effects.