Accelerated vaccine rollout is imperative to mitigate highly transmissible COVID-19 variants.
Accelerated vaccine rollout is imperative to mitigate highly transmissible COVID-19 variants.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100865
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发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
15.1
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sah P;Vilches TN;Moghadas SM;Fitzpatrick MC;Singer BH;Hotez PJ;Galvani AP
世界各地出现了更具传染性的 SARS-CoV-2 变种，引发了人们对病例即将激增和严重后果的担忧。尽管开发了有效的疫苗，但推广进展缓慢。我们评估了加速疫苗分发对遏制新型 SARS-CoV-2 变种疾病负担的影响。我们使用基于代理的 SARS-CoV-2 传播和疫苗接种模型来模拟除原始毒株之外具有 S 基因目标失败 (SGTF) 的新变种的传播。我们结合了特定年龄的风险和接触模式，并根据疾病预防控制中心建议的优先顺序实施了两剂疫苗接种活动。作为基本案例，我们预测美国 (US) 每日疫苗接种率为 100 万剂时的住院和死亡人数，并与每日剂量扩大到 1.5、2、2.5 或 300 万剂的加速运动进行比较。我们发现，在每天接种 100 万剂疫苗的情况下，一种新出现的 SGTF 变种的传染性比原始变种高 20-70%，将在 2 至 9 周内成为主导，占疫情高峰期病例的 99%。我们的结果表明，加速疫苗接种将大大减少严重的健康后果。对于传播率提高 30% 的 SGTF，将疫苗剂量从每天 1 百万增加到 300 万剂，可在 300 天内避免 152,048 例（95% CrI：134,772–168,696）例住院治疗和 48,448 例（95% CrI：42,042–54,285）例死亡。加速疫苗接种还可以防止更多的 COVID-19 浪潮，否则，对非药物干预措施 (NPI) 的依从性减弱将会加剧这种浪潮。我们发现，目前疫苗的推出速度不足以防止新的、传染性更强的 SARS-CoV-2 变种导致疫情加剧。加快疫苗接种率应该是公共卫生的首要任务，以避免因 SGTF 变种广泛传播而导致的 COVID-19 住院和死亡人数预期激增。我们的结果强调需要加强 COVID-19 疫苗的生产和分发，以迅速扩大疫苗接种优先群体和分发地点。
More contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged around the world, sparking concerns about impending surge in cases and severe outcomes. Despite the development of effective vaccines, rollout has been slow. We evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccine distribution on curbing the disease burden of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. We used an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination to simulate the spread of novel variants with S-Gene Target Failure (SGTF) in addition to the original strain. We incorporated age-specific risk and contact patterns and implemented a two-dose vaccination campaign in accord with CDC-recommended prioritization. As a base case, we projected hospitalizations and deaths at a daily vaccination rate of 1 million doses in the United States (US) and compared with accelerated campaigns in which daily doses were expanded to 1.5, 2, 2.5, or 3 million. We found that at a vaccination rate of 1 million doses per day, an emergent SGTF variant that is 20–70% more transmissible than the original variant would become dominant within 2 to 9 weeks, accounting for as much as 99% of cases at the outbreak peak. Our results show that accelerating vaccine delivery would substantially reduce severe health outcomes. For a SGTF with 30% higher transmissibility, increasing vaccine doses from 1 to 3 million per day would avert 152,048 (95% CrI: 134,772–168,696) hospitalizations and 48,448 (95% CrI: 42,042–54,285) deaths over 300 days. Accelerated vaccination would also prevent additional COVID-19 waves that would otherwise be fuelled by waning adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We found that the current pace of vaccine rollout is insufficient to prevent the exacerbation of the pandemic that will be attributable to the novel, more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants. Accelerating the vaccination rate should be a public health priority for averting the expected surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths that would be associated with widespread dissemination of the SGTF variants. Our results underscore the need to bolster the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, to rapidly expand vaccination priority groups and distribution sites.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
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Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e3
发表时间：
2020-04-17
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Fry A
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
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作者：
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COVE Study Group
影响因子：
64.8
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Penninger, JM
影响因子：
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