Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector
Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.04.035
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发表时间：
2009-09
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Anson;K. Turner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Anson;K. Turner
在本文中，我们使用苏格兰经济的能源-经济-环境可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来检验能源外生增长对国内商业运输部门能源供应和使用的影响。我们将分析重点放在苏格兰精炼油上，这是商业运输活动中使用的主要能源投入类型。我们发现，商业运输部门的能源效率每提高5%，就会在所有时期、目标部门和整个经济层面上，导致以石油为基础的能源商品使用的反弹效应。然而，我们的研究结果也表明，这种效率的提高可能会导致苏格兰成品油供应部门的产能收缩。这种“撤资效应”限制了反弹效应的规模。然而，在这里进行的模拟中，反弹效应的大小和撤资效应的存在对目标部门嵌套生产函数中关键替代弹性的规定很敏感，特别是能源对生产中非能源中间投入的可替代性。
In this paper, we use an energy–economy–environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on Scottish refined oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish refined oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.