The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0009360
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发表时间：
2010-02-26
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bansal, Shweta;Pourbohloul, Babak;Meyers, Lauren Ancel
背景：随着2009年H1N1流感大流行在地球仪蔓延，学龄儿童比成年人更容易受到感染。虽然有一些证据表明，老年人预先存在的免疫力，这可能无法解释显着的差距，在特定年龄的感染rate.Methods和调查结果：基于回顾性分析的流感大流行株从上个世纪，我们表明，学龄儿童通常经历最高的攻击率主要是天真的人群，与负担转移到成年人在随后的季节。使用一个简约的网络为基础的数学模型，其中包括在易感人群中不断变化的接触分布，我们表明，新的流感大流行毒株预计将改变流行病学景观正是这样的方式.Conclusions：我们的分析提供了一个简单的人口统计学解释的年龄偏差观察H1N1/09攻击率，并表明，这种偏见可能会在未来几个月内发生变化。这些结果对H1N1/09和未来流感大流行的公共卫生资源分配具有重要意义。
Background: As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Methods and Findings: Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Conclusions: Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.