Growing Safely or Building Risk?: Floodplain Management in North Carolina
Growing Safely or Building Risk?: Floodplain Management in North Carolina
复制标题
安全增长还是增加风险？：北卡罗来纳州的洪泛区管理
DOI：
10.1080/01944363.2022.2141821
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Sweeney, Shane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hino, Miyuki;BenDor, Todd K.;Branham, Jordan;Kaza, Nikhil;Sebastian, Antonia;Sweeney, Shane
问题、研究策略和发现长期以来，人们一直认为在洪水易发地区限制住房和基础设施是管理长期风险的关键。然而，由于在小的空间尺度上跟踪发展的困难，很少进行实证研究来解释社区洪泛区发展模式之间的差异。我们分析了北卡罗来纳州500万个地块的新建筑，以制定洪泛区开发的标准化措施，并评估了洪水风险管理工作与开发成果之间的关系。在全州范围内，从1996年到2017年，通过收购拆除的每一处房产，都有10多处新住宅建在洪泛区。在社区一级，洪水风险管理工作指标（参与社区评级系统和使用买断）与洪泛区发展成果并不一致。根据城市和郊区县的样本，我们发现目前有超过75,000英亩的洪泛区土地被划为开发区。尽管我们没有掌握所有减轻洪水风险的做法，但结果表明，当地的发展政策往往与限制长期风险的努力背道而驰。实践要点土地利用规划和洪泛区管理有可能在减轻洪水风险方面发挥更大的作用。修改联邦计划，更强烈地抑制洪泛区的发展，可以加强地方监管，并尽量减少未来的洪水风险。鉴于大片未开发的洪泛区土地和预计的气候变化，需要进一步努力管理开发，以限制洪水风险的增加。
Problem, research strategy, and findingsLimiting housing and infrastructure in flood-prone places has long been recognized as critical to managing long-term risk. However, due to the difficulty of tracking development at small spatial scales, little empirical research has been conducted to explain differences between communities’ floodplain development patterns. We analyzed new construction across 5 million parcels in the state of North Carolina to develop standardized measures of floodplain development and evaluated the relationships between flood risk management effort and development outcomes. Statewide, for every property removed through buyouts from 1996 to 2017, more than 10 new residences were built in floodplains. At the community level, indicators of flood risk management effort (participation in the Community Rating System and use of buyouts) did not consistently align with floodplain development outcomes. Based on a sample of urban and suburban counties, we found more than 75,000 acres of vacant floodplain land currently zoned for development. Although we did not capture the full range of flood risk mitigation practices, results indicate that local development policies often run counter to efforts to limit long-term risk.Takeaway for practiceLand use planning and floodplain management have the potential to play a larger role in flood risk mitigation. Modifying federal programs to more strongly disincentivize floodplain development could enhance local regulation and minimize future flood exposure. Given extensive undeveloped floodplain land and projected climate change, additional effort to manage development is needed to limit increases in flood risk.