Climate Change in Algeria: Vulnerability and Strategy of Mitigation and Adaptation
Climate Change in Algeria: Vulnerability and Strategy of Mitigation and Adaptation
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阿尔及利亚的气候变化：脆弱性以及减缓和适应战略
DOI：
10.1016/j.egypro.2013.07.145
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Kerbachi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Sahnoune;M. Belhamel;M. Zelmat;R. Kerbachi
由于其地理位置和气候特点，阿尔及利亚极易受到气候变化的影响。即使气温略有上升，也会导致各种社会经济问题，阻碍国家的发展。这些模型预测，降雨事件不那么频繁，但强度更大，而干旱则更常见，持续时间更长。降雨的时空分布也会发生变化。对阿尔及利亚北方1931年至1990年气候数据的分析表明，气温每上升0.5°C，到2020年就会上升1°C。预计到2050年气温将上升2°C。水资源的减少、农业产量的下降、沙漠的侵蚀、规划的挑战和空调的能源消耗只是阿尔及利亚必须找到经济和社会上可支持的解决办法的初步影响。因此，尽管阿尔及利亚对全球变暖的贡献微乎其微，（不到全球温室气体排放量的0.5%），该国非常脆弱，应将适应纳入其发展政策。我们在本研究中分析了当前形势，支持可持续发展和气候变化问题，阿尔及利亚的足迹，阿尔及利亚二氧化碳排放趋势，缓解和适应战略阿尔及利亚，国家气候计划，特别是2011年通过的促进可再生能源的新国家计划的影响，预计太阳能将产生40%的电力需求。还将介绍能够减轻中期气候变化引起的影响的考虑途径。
Due to its geographical position and climatic characteristics, Algeria is highly vulnerable to climate change. Even a small rise in temperature would lead to various socio-economic problems that hinder the development of the country. The models predict that rainfall events are less frequent but more intense, while droughts are more common and longer. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will also change. The analysis of climate data from 1931 to 1990 in northern Algeria reveals a rise in temperature of 0.5°C would reach an increase of 1°C by 2020. A temperature rise of 2°C is expected by 2050. The decrease of water resources, declining agricultural yields, encroaching desert, the challenge of planning and the energy consumption for air conditioning are only the initial impacts to which Algeria must find answers supportable economically and socially. Thus although the contribution of Algeria on global warming is minimal (less than 0.5% of global GHG emissions), the country is very vulnerable and should integrate adaptation into its development policy.We present in this study an analysis of the current situation with regard to support sustainable development and climate change issues, footprint of Algeria, trends in emissions of CO2in Algeria, mitigation and adaptation strategy Algeria, national climate plan and especially what the impact of the new national plan for promoting renewable energy adopted in 2011 and expects to produce 40% of electricity needs from solar. Avenues of consideration that are able to mitigate the impacts induced by medium-term climate change will also be presented.