Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic.
Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic.
复制标题
在流行病中稳定恢复正常行为。
DOI：
10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Schiff,StevenJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Berry,Tyrus;Ferrari,Matthew;Sauer,Timothy;Greybush,StevenJ;Ebeigbe,Donald;Whalen,AndrewJ;Schiff,StevenJ
预测传染病和行为之间的相互作用一直是一个棘手的问题，因为行为反应多种多样。我们介绍了传染病发病率和行为之间反馈的一般框架。通过确定稳定的均衡，我们提供自我管理和自我维护的政策最终状态。我们在数学上证明了取决于疫苗接种率的两种新的地方性平衡的存在：一种是疫苗接种率低但社会活动减少（“新常态”），另一种是恢复正常活动但疫苗接种率低于消除疾病所需的水平。该框架使我们能够预测新出现疾病的长期后果，并设计疫苗接种反应，以优化公共卫生并限制社会后果。
Predicting the interplay between infectious disease and behavior has been an intractable problem because behavioral response is so varied. We introduce a general framework for feedback between incidence and behavior for an infectious disease. By identifying stable equilibria, we provide policy end-states that are self-managing and self-maintaining. We prove mathematically the existence of two new endemic equilibria depending on the vaccination rate: one in the presence of low vaccination but with reduced societal activity (the “new normal”), and one with return to normal activity but with vaccination rate below that required for disease elimination. This framework allows us to anticipate the long-term consequence of an emerging disease and design a vaccination response that optimizes public health and limits societal consequences.