An evaluation of approaches for modelling hydrological processes in high‐elevation, glacierized Andean watersheds
An evaluation of approaches for modelling hydrological processes in high‐elevation, glacierized Andean watersheds
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.10055
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发表时间：
2014-11
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
S. Ragettli;G. Cortés;J. McPhee;F. Pellicciotti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Ragettli;G. Cortés;J. McPhee;F. Pellicciotti
我们使用两种不同复杂性的水文模型来研究智利安第斯山脉中部的洪卡尔河流域，目的是了解模拟当前和未来水流所需的概念化程度和空间结构。我们使用基于高程带的概念性半分布式模型[水资源评估和规划（WEAP）]，经常用于水资源管理，以及主要用于研究目的而开发的面向物理的完全分布式模型[地形运动波近似和积分苏黎世联邦理工学院（TOPKAPI-ETH）]。我们评估了两个模型重现流域关键水文过程的能力，重点关注积雪和融化、径流以及内部过程之间的关系。两种模型都能够充分再现观测到的径流和中分辨率成像光谱仪积雪的演变。尽管 WEAP 的融雪建模方法简单且概念化，并且缺乏冰川表示和雪重力重新分布以及适当的路由算法，但该模型可以重现历史数据，其拟合优度与更复杂的 TOPKAPI-ETH 相似。我们表明，通过使用更高时间分辨率的测量降水梯度可以提高两种模型的性能。然而，与当前气候概念模型的良好表现相反，我们证明 WEAP 中的简化会导致误差补偿，从而导致对未来可能变暖的气候的模拟融化和径流做出不同的预测。 TOPKAPI-ETH 使用更物理的过程表示，较少依赖于校准，因此较少受到通过不同模型组件的误差补偿的影响。我们的结果表明，需要在临时短期实地活动中本地获得的数据来补充从长期记录推断的数据，以模拟高海拔流域水循环的变化，但这些数据只能由应用水文过程的空间分布物理表示的模型来有效使用。版权所有 © 2013 约翰·威利父子有限公司
We use two hydrological models of varying complexity to study the Juncal River Basin in the Central Andes of Chile with the aim to understand the degree of conceptualization and the spatial structure that are needed to model present and future streamflows. We use a conceptual semi‐distributed model based on elevation bands [Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)], frequently used for water management, and a physically oriented, fully distributed model [Topographic Kinematic Wave Approximation and Integration ETH Zurich (TOPKAPI‐ETH)] developed for research purposes mainly. We evaluate the ability of the two models to reproduce the key hydrological processes in the basin with emphasis on snow accumulation and melt, streamflow and the relationships between internal processes. Both models are capable of reproducing observed runoff and the evolution of Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover adequately. In spite of WEAP's simple and conceptual approach for modelling snowmelt and its lack of glacier representation and snow gravitational redistribution as well as a proper routing algorithm, this model can reproduce historical data with a similar goodness of fit as the more complex TOPKAPI‐ETH. We show that the performance of both models can be improved by using measured precipitation gradients of higher temporal resolution. In contrast to the good performance of the conceptual model for the present climate, however, we demonstrate that the simplifications in WEAP lead to error compensation, which results in different predictions in simulated melt and runoff for a potentially warmer future climate. TOPKAPI‐ETH, using a more physical representation of processes, depends less on calibration and thus is less subject to a compensation of errors through different model components. Our results show that data obtained locally in ad hoc short‐term field campaigns are needed to complement data extrapolated from long‐term records for simulating changes in the water cycle of high‐elevation catchments but that these data can only be efficiently used by a model applying a spatially distributed physical representation of hydrological processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.