Needs-based planning for the oral health workforce - development and application of a simulation model
Needs-based planning for the oral health workforce - development and application of a simulation model
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DOI：
10.1186/s12960-019-0394-0
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发表时间：
2019-07-15
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Listl, Stefan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ahern, Susan;Woods, Noel;Listl, Stefan
背景世界卫生组织的全球卫生人力资源战略包括一项目标，即使卫生人力资源投资与人口当前和未来的需求保持一致。虽然口腔健康是总体健康和福祉的一个关键指标，而且口腔疾病是影响世界一半人口的最常见非传染性疾病，但口腔卫生工作人员规划工作仅限于简单的目标牙医-人口比率或恒定的服务-人口比率，而没有考虑到人口需求的水平和变化。在此背景下，我们的目标是开发和实施一个基于口腔健康需求的劳动力规划模拟工具。方法采用文献中提出的概念框架，在Microsoft Excel中构建模型，并将其应用于一个假设的环境中，以验证其可操作性。该模型包括提供者供应部分和提供者需求部分，从而能够比较目前和未来口腔保健工作者的供应和需求。可公开获得的数据，包括特别欧洲晴雨表330口腔健康调查，被用于填充模型。在没有公开数据的情况下作出假设，并在情景分析中检验关键假设。结果：我们系统地为口腔卫生工作人员开发了一个基于需求的劳动力规划模型，并将该模型应用于30年时间跨度的假设背景下。在2017年的基线情景中，该模型得出的全职等效牙医需求数字为899名，而全职等效牙医的供应数字为1985年。在方案分析中，FTE供应商的需求数字从1123到1629不等，说明参数值变化的影响程度。结论决策者认识到迫切需要更好地规划卫生人力资源，以及牙科在这一领域的工作稀缺，我们已经证明了为口腔卫生人力资源生产一个可行、实用和有用的基于需求的人力资源规划模拟工具的可行性。在此过程中，我们强调了在获取填充此类模型所需的及时和相关数据并确保模型输出的可靠性方面所面临的挑战。
BackgroundThe World Health Organization's global strategy on human resources for health includes an objective to align investment in human resources for health with the current and future needs of the population. Although oral health is a key indicator of overall health and wellbeing, and oral diseases are the most common noncommunicable diseases affecting half the world's population, oral health workforce planning efforts have been limited to simplistic target dentist-population or constant services-population ratios which do not account for levels of and changes in population need. Against this backdrop, our aim was to develop and operationalise an oral health needs-based workforce planning simulation tool.MethodsUsing a conceptual framework put forward in the literature, we aimed to build the model in Microsoft Excel and apply it in a hypothetical context to demonstrate its operability. The model incorporates a provider supply component and a provider requirement component, enabling a comparison of the current and future supply of and requirement for oral health workers. Publicly available data, including the Special Eurobarometer 330 Oral Health Survey, were used to populate the model. Assumptions were made where data were not publicly available and key assumptions were tested in scenario analyses.ResultsWe have systematically developed a needs-based workforce planning model for the oral health workforce and applied the model in a hypothetical context over a 30-year time span. In the 2017 baseline scenario, the model produced a full-time equivalent (FTE) provider requirement figure of 899 dentists compared with an FTE provider supply figure of 1985. In the scenario analyses, the FTE provider requirement figure ranged from 1123 to 1629 illustrating the extent of the impact of changing parameter values.ConclusionsIn response to policy makers' recognition of the pressing need to better plan human resources for health and the scarcity of work in this area for dentistry, we have demonstrated the feasibility of producing a workable, practical and useful needs-based workforce planning simulation tool for the oral health workforce. In doing so, we have highlighted the challenges faced in accessing timely and relevant data needed to populate such models and ensure the reliability of model outputs.