China's coal consumption declining-Impermanent or permanent?
China's coal consumption declining-Impermanent or permanent?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.07.018
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Li, Shiqun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang, Xu;Jin, Yi;Li, Shiqun
煤炭在中国能源消费中占主导地位，学术论文特别是2010年之前的论文通常严重低估了中国的煤炭消费。然而，2014年和2015年中国煤炭消费量连续下降。这似乎表明，中国可能终于在2013年达到了煤炭消费的峰值。对这一现象的分析很少有定量研究。采用对数平均Divisia指数（LMDI）方法，分析了影响中国煤炭消费量变化的主要因素。本文从间接煤炭消费的角度出发，通过建立投入产出模型，对中国隐含煤炭出口进行分析，试图通过对煤炭最终需求的追踪，来理解煤炭消费为何会达到峰值。研究结果表明，自2012年以来，产业结构的变化开始显着减少中国煤炭消费量，能源强度和能源结构效应自2007年以来继续在减少煤炭消费中发挥重要作用，尤其是2012年以来的能源结构效应。另一方面，虽然经济规模效应--中国煤炭消费增长的唯一驱动因素--仍然很大，但增长趋势已经逆转，其影响已经稳定下来。尽管近年来中国的贸易顺差仍在增加，但中国的隐含煤炭出口无论是绝对数量还是占煤炭消费的比例都在下降，这与2011年之前的趋势完全不同。中国不断努力调整出口结构-从劳动力和能源密集型转向资本和技术密集型-将减少未来的煤炭出口和煤炭消费。(C)© 2016 Elsevier B. V.版权所有。
Coal dominates China's energy consumption, and academic published papers especially before 2010 usually undervalued China's coal consumption significantly. However, China's coal consumption has declined continuously in 2014 and 2015. This seems to indicate that China may have finally reached the peak of its coal consumption in 2013. There is minimal quantitative research on the analysis of this phenomenon. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is used in this study to analyze the key factors that drive China's direct coal consumption variation. Approaching the issue from the perspective of indirect coal consumption, an Input-Output model is established to discuss China's embodied coal exports in this study, aiming to trace the ultimate demand for coal to understand why consumption might have peaked. The research results suggest that changes of industrial structure started to reduce China's coal consumption significantly since 2012, and the effects of energy intensity and energy mix have continued to play important roles in coal consumption reduction since 2007, especially the energy mix effect since 2012. On the other side of the equation, although the economic scale effect - the only factor apparently driving increases in China's coal consumption - is still large, the increasing trend has reversed, and its impact has stabilised. China's embodied coal exports, both absolute volume and the proportion of coal consumption, are falling even though the trade surplus has still been increasing in recent years, which is completely different with the trend before 2011. China's continuous efforts on export restructuring - shifting from labour & energy-intensive to capital & technology-intensive - will reduce embodied coal exports and coal consumption in the future. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.