Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation?
Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00157.x
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Bongaarts, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bongaarts, John
在过去的四分之一个世纪里，许多发展中国家的生育率迅速下降。预测通常假设这一趋势将持续到达到更替水平。然而，最近的证据表明，在一些转型期国家，生育率持续下降的速度可能已经放缓或停滞。这项研究考察了发展中国家生育率变化的速度，这些国家进行了多次人口和健康调查，以确定正在进行的转变是减速还是停滞不前。主要调查结果是，在撒哈拉以南非洲国家，2000年前后生育率下降的平均速度低于1990年代中期，该区域一半以上的转型国家已经停滞不前。
Over the past quarter-century, fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until replacement level is reached. Recent evidence suggests, however, that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple Demographic and Health Surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility was lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s and that more than half the countries in transition in this region have stalled.