Intersection approach speed and accident probability
Intersection approach speed and accident probability
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trf.2005.10.001
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Janssen, WH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Spek, ACE;Wieringa, PA;Janssen, WH
考虑到人类感知的局限性，推导出了交叉口间隙接受的统计模型。该模型假设接受间隙的几率的对数是间隙时间的对数和车辆关闭差距的速度的线性函数。根据布里隆和Weinert（2001）在12个无信号交叉口的真实的交通中观察到的间隙接受决定进行拟合[Ermittlung aktueller Schriz- und folgezeitlucken fur auerortsknoten ohne lichtsignalanlagen. Strabenbau und Strabenverkehrstechnik，vol. 828.]以及汉考克和凯尔德（1993）的驾驶模拟器实验[影响老年驾驶员左转决策的因素。技术报告，运输研究委员会，国家研究理事会，华盛顿，DC]。模型拟合对于交通观测值是合理的（R-2 = 0.76），并且对于模拟器数据是非常好的（R-2 = 0.97）。参数估计结果表明，速度对间隙接受行为有显著影响。当接近车辆的速度增加时，穿越优先流的驾驶员倾向于接受更短的时间间隔。这种影响对老年驾驶员比对年轻驾驶员更强。建议该模型可以外推到量化的接近速度和事故概率之间的关系。这种外推所需的验证尚未进行。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
A statistical model is derived for gap acceptance at intersections, taking into account limitations of human perception. The model assumes the logarithm of the odds for acceptance of a gap as a linear function of the logarithms of gap time and the speed of the vehicle closing the gap. Fitting is performed against gap acceptance decisions as observed in real traffic at 12 unsignalized intersections by Brilon and Weinert (2001) [Ermittlung aktueller grenz- und folgezeitlucken fur auerortsknoten ohne lichtsignalanlagen. StraBenbau und StraBenverkehrstechnik, vol. 828.] and in a driving simulator experiment by Hancock and Caird (1993) [Factors affecting older drivers' left turn decisions. Technical Report, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, DC]. The model fit was reasonable for the traffic observations (R-2 = 0.76) and very good for the simulator data (R-2 = 0.97). Parameter estimation yields that the speed has a significant effect on gap acceptance behavior. Drivers crossing a priority stream tend to accept shorter time gaps as the speed of the approaching vehicle increases. This effect is stronger for older drivers than for younger drivers. It is proposed that this model may be extrapolated to quantify the relation between approach speed and accident probability. The validation that this kind of extrapolation would require, has not yet been performed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.