MODELS FOR TEMPORAL VARIATION IN CANCER RATES .1. AGE PERIOD AND AGE COHORT MODELS
MODELS FOR TEMPORAL VARIATION IN CANCER RATES .1. AGE PERIOD AND AGE COHORT MODELS
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780060405
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发表时间：
1987-06-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
SCHIFFLERS, E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CLAYTON, D;SCHIFFLERS, E
描述性流行病学家关注的一个主要问题是癌症发病率的时间变化的呈现和解释。简单地说，这个问题是对按年龄组和日历期间以双向表排列的一组费率的分析。我们回顾了分析这类数据的现代方法，从乘性风险模型的角度证明了传统的年龄标准化方法的合理性。我们讨论了当时间变化是由于纯粹的长期(周期)影响以及当它们可归因于世代(队列)影响时，该模型的使用。最后，我们展示了解释常规趋势所面临的严重困难。英国伯明翰的膀胱癌发病率、意大利的膀胱癌死亡率和比利时的肺癌死亡率的例子说明了所描述的方法。
A main concern of descriptive epidemiologists is the presentation and interpretation of temporal variations in cancer rates. In its simplest form, this problem is that of the analysis of a set of rates arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period. We review the modern approach to the analysis of such data which justifies traditional methods of age standardization in terms of the multiplicative risk model. We discuss the use of this model when the temporal variations are due to purely secular (period) influences and when they are attributable to generational (cohort) influences. Finally we demonstrate the serious difficulties which attend the interpretation of regular trends. The methods described are illustrated by examples for incidence rates of bladder cancer in Birmingham, U. K., mortality from bladder cancer in Italy, and mortality from lung cancer in Belgium.