Statistical Analysis of ‘Probabilities of Causation’ Using Co‐variate Information
Statistical Analysis of ‘Probabilities of Causation’ Using Co‐variate Information
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使用协变量信息对“因果关系概率”进行统计分析
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9469.2011.00730.x
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Zhihong Cai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Manabu Kuroki;Zhihong Cai
摘要：本文讨论了Pearl（Causality：models，reasoning，and inference，2nd edn，2009，剑桥大学出版社，纽约）定义的因果关系概率的两个问题，即一个观测事件是另一个事件的必要（或充分，或两者兼而有之）原因的概率;一个是推导新的界限，另一个是提供协变量选择标准。 Tian & Pearl（Ann. Math. Artif.内部：28，2000，287-313）展示了如何使用来自实验和观察研究的信息来约束因果关系的概率，对数据生成过程的假设最少，以及这些概率的可识别条件。在这篇文章中，我们推导出更窄的边界使用协变量的信息，是从这些研究。此外，我们提出了条件单调性假设，以进一步缩小界限。此外，我们讨论了协变量的选择问题，从估计精度的角度来看，并表明，选择一个协变量，有一个直接影响的结果变量并不总是提高估计精度，这是相反的情况下，线性回归模型。这些结果为公共政策、法律的责任认定和个人决策提供了更准确的信息。
Abstract. This article deals with two problems concering the probabilities of causation defined by Pearl (Causality: models, reasoning, and inference, 2nd edn, 2009, Cambridge University Press, New York) namely, the probability that one observed event was a necessary (or sufficient, or both) cause of another; one is to derive new bounds, and the other is to provide the covariate selection criteria. Tian & Pearl (Ann. Math. Artif. Intell., 28, 2000, 287–313) showed how to bound the probabilities of causation using information from experimental and observational studies, with minimal assumptions about the data‐generating process, and identifiable conditions for these probabilities. In this article, we derive narrower bounds using covariate information that is available from those studies. In addition, we propose the conditional monotonicity assumption so as to further narrow the bounds. Moreover, we discuss the covariate selection problem from the viewpoint of the estimation accuracy, and show that selecting a covariate that has a direct effect on an outcome variable cannot always improve the estimation accuracy, which is contrary to the situation in linear regression models. These results provide more accurate information for public policy, legal determination of responsibility and personal decision making.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Cole, Stephen R.;Hernan, Miguel A.
通讯作者：
Hernan, Miguel A.