Evaluating the Performance of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods
Evaluating the Performance of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods
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DOI：
10.1086/595550
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发表时间：
2008-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Barnes;K. Leka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Barnes;K. Leka
最近，利用光球磁场观测进行太阳耀斑预测的方法数量激增，对每种方法的效果有很大不同的说法。由于使用了不同的分析技术和数据集，基本上不可能直接比较结果。一个系统的比较，在这里使用三个参数的基础上发表的文献，其特征的光球磁场本身，加上一个特征的日冕磁拓扑结构。判别分析的统计方法的基础上的预测，这些参数中的每一个，和他们的能力，预测主要耀斑量化使用技能得分。尽管在描述这四个参数的原始研究中，关于它们的预测效用的陈述大相径庭，但它们的表现在这里没有明显的区别，从而表明使用标准验证统计的重要性。
The number of published approaches to solar flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated recently, with widely varying claims about how well each works. As different analysis techniques and data sets were used, it is essentially impossible to directly compare the results. A systematic comparison is presented here using three parameters based on the published literature that characterize the photospheric magnetic field itself, plus one that characterizes the coronal magnetic topology. Forecasts based on the statistical method of discriminant analysis are made for each of these parameters, and their ability to predict major flares is quantified using skill scores. Despite widely varying statements regarding their forecasting utility in the original studies describing these four parameters, there is no clear distinction in their performance here, thus demonstrating the importance of using standard verification statistics.