Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1
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发表时间：
2020-01-20
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gerten, Dieter;Heck, Vera;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
全球农业给地球边界带来了沉重的压力，构成了在不损害地球系统弹性的情况下实现未来粮食安全的挑战。在一个内部一致的模式框架中对四个相互关联的行星边界(生物圈完整性、陆地系统变化、淡水利用、氮流)和农业系统进行详细的、空间上明确的表示的基础上，我们在这里表明，目前全球粮食生产的近一半依赖于行星边界的越界。热点地区，主要在亚洲，甚至面临多个潜在地方边界的同时越界。如果严格遵守这些界限，目前的食品体系只能为34亿人提供均衡的饮食(人均每天2355大卡)。然而，正如我们还表明的那样，向更可持续的生产和消费模式转型可以在所分析的全球范围内养活102亿人。关键的先决条件是重新分配农田的空间，改善水营养管理，减少食物浪费和改变饮食。农业改变了地球，并有可能跨越一个健康地球的门槛。这项研究发现，目前近一半的粮食生产跨越了这样的界限，比如淡水的使用，但向更可持续的生产和消费转型可以养活102亿人。
Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.