Transmission dynamics of re-emerging rabies in domestic dogs of rural China
Transmission dynamics of re-emerging rabies in domestic dogs of rural China
复制标题
中国农村家犬中狂犬病重新出现的传播动态
DOI：
10.1371/journal.ppat.1007392
复制
发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Dellicour, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tian, Huaiyu;Feng, Yun;Dellicour, Simon
尽管正在努力控制传播，但狂犬病预防在许多发展中国家仍然是一个挑战，特别是在中国农村地区，由于缺乏持续的动物监测，狂犬病的重新出现报告不足。通过利用1999年至2015年期间收集的中国云南省再次出现的狂犬病疫情的详细基因组和流行病学数据，我们重建了国内犬狂犬病病毒（RABV）的人口统计和传播历史以及狗与狗和狗与人传播的动态。系统地理学分析显示，较低的扩散系数比以前估计的狗RABV传播在北方非洲。此外，流行病学分析显示，狗之间以及狗与人之间的传播率低于非洲的估计数。最后，我们表明重建的RABV在犬中的流行史和狂犬病犬的动态与记录的人狂犬病病例一致。这项工作说明了地理学和流行病建模方法相结合的好处，揭示人畜共患病的时空动态，这两种方法提供了关键的流行病学参数的估计。
Despite ongoing efforts to control transmission, rabies prevention remains a challenge in many developing countries, especially in rural areas of China where re-emerging rabies is under-reported due to a lack of sustained animal surveillance. By taking advantage of detailed genomic and epidemiological data for the re-emerging rabies outbreak in Yunnan Province, China, collected between 1999 and 2015, we reconstruct the demographic and dispersal history of domestic dog rabies virus (RABV) as well as the dynamics of dog-to-dog and dog-to-human transmission. Phylogeographic analyses reveal a lower diffusion coefficient than previously estimated for dog RABV dissemination in northern Africa. Furthermore, epidemiological analyses reveal transmission rates between dogs, as well as between dogs and humans, lower than estimates for Africa. Finally, we show that reconstructed epidemic history of RABV among dogs and the dynamics of rabid dogs are consistent with the recorded human rabies cases. This work illustrates the benefits of combining phylogeographic and epidemic modelling approaches for uncovering the spatiotemporal dynamics of zoonotic diseases, with both approaches providing estimates of key epidemiological parameters.