Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study.
Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study.
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DOI：
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16304.2
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Aldridge RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eyre MT;Burns R;Kirkby V;Smith C;Denaxas S;Nguyen V;Hayward A;Shallcross L;Fragaszy E;Aldridge RW
背景资料：诊断测试是英国应对当前2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的主要部分，为任何持续咳嗽，高温或嗅觉丧失的人提供测试。在冬季呼吸道季节，由于非COVID-19原因导致的咳嗽和发烧水平较高，检测能力必须足够。这项研究旨在预测基线咳嗽或发烧对英国未来检测需求的贡献。 在Bug Watch社区队列研究的分析中，我们估计了2018-2019年英格兰咳嗽或发热的发病率。然后，我们估计了2020年7月至2021年6月期间英国基线咳嗽或发热病例所需的COVID-19诊断检测率。这是针对不同比例的人群要求检测、四种COVID-19第二波情景以及高基线和低基线咳嗽或发热发病率情景进行的探索。 结果如下：在高基线咳嗽或发热情况下，预计英国的发病率将从9月的每天250，708例（95%CI 181，095 - 347，080）迅速上升至12月的峰值444，660例（95%CI 353，084 - 559，988）。如果这些案例中有80%要求测试，测试需求将连续五个月每周超过140万次测试。在低咳嗽或发热发病率情景下，需求显著降低，2021年1月每天检测129，115次（95%CI 111，596 - 151，679），而在高发病率情景下每天检测340，921次（95%CI 276，039 - 424，491）。 结论：我们的研究结果表明，国家COVID-19检测需求高度依赖于背景咳嗽或发热发病率。这项研究强调，英国对COVID-19大流行的应对必须确保高比例的有症状的人要求检测，并且检测能力足以满足预计的高需求。
Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests, four COVID-19 second wave scenarios and high and low baseline cough or fever incidence scenarios. Results: Under the high baseline cough or fever scenario, incidence in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) cases per day in September to a peak of 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of these cases request tests, testing demand would exceed 1.4 million tests per week for five consecutive months. Demand was significantly lower in the low cough or fever incidence scenario, with 129,115 (95%CI 111,596 - 151,679) tests per day in January 2021, compared to 340,921 (95%CI 276,039 - 424,491) tests per day in the higher incidence scenario. Conclusions: Our results show that national COVID-19 testing demand is highly dependent on background cough or fever incidence. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is sufficient to meet the high predicted demand.