Bargaining with Optimism: Identification and Estimation of a Model of Medical Malpractice Litigation
Bargaining with Optimism: Identification and Estimation of a Model of Medical Malpractice Litigation
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乐观地讨价还价：医疗事故诉讼模型的识别和评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Xun Tang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Antonio Merlo;Xun Tang
我们研究了一种乐观的讨价还价模型，其中参与者对最终解决方案有不同的信念。信念和讨价还价盈余是根据结算概率和已接受转账的分布来确定的。利用佛罗里达州医疗事故诉讼的数据，我们估计了医生和患者的信念以及潜在赔偿的分配。我们发现，当损伤严重程度较高时，患者更加乐观，医生更加悲观，而随着严重程度的增加，联合乐观情绪也会减弱。我们量化了和解概率的增加以及在总补偿的反事实上限下接受的和解要约的减少。
We study a model of bargaining with optimism where players have heterogeneous beliefs about the final resolution. Beliefs and bargaining surplus are identified from the settlement probability and the distribution of accepted transfers. Using data from medical malpractice lawsuits in Florida, we estimate doctor and patient beliefs and the distribution of potential compensation. We find that patients are more optimistic and doctors more pessimistic when the severity of injury is higher, and the joint optimism diminishes as severity increases. We quantify the increase in settlement probability and the reduction in accepted settlement offers under counterfactual caps on the total compensation.