Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of Continental River in Arid Areas——Taking Kensiwate Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an Example
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of Continental River in Arid Areas——Taking Kensiwate Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an Example
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作者：
Chen Fu-lon
气候变化已成为全球人类共同关注的问题。随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧，水资源短缺已成为一个全球性问题。分析流域径流变化的影响因素，定量评估气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响，对于合理配置流域水资源和生态建设具有至关重要的意义。近55年来，新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站的年径流量呈上升趋势。为分析在气候变化和人类活动条件下肯斯瓦特水文站径流的演变规律，本研究在1955 - 2010年的年度数据基础上，利用线性回归、趋势分析和移动平均法检测了径流和气候变化的变异特征。此外，利用曼 - 肯德尔检验和累积距平法检测出径流、降水和蒸发的突变点，分别为1995年、1997年和1996年。通过统计分析方法分析了1955 - 1995年以及1996 - 2010年年份与累积径流、累积降水、累积蒸发之间的线性关系。累积斜率率比较法的结果表明，降水、蒸发和人类活动对径流增加的贡献率分别为59.64%、31.83%和8.53%。根据研究结果，气候变化是径流变化的主要因素。
Climate change has become a global issue of common concern to people. With climate change and human activity aggravation,water shortage has become a worldwide problem. Analysis the influence factors of the basin runoff change,quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff has the vital significance for reasonable allocation of river basin water resources and ecological construction. In recent 55 years,the annual runoff of Kensiwate hydrological station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin shows increasing trend. To analyze the evolvement rules of the runoff in Kensiwate hydrological station under the conditions of climate change and human activities,this study detected the variation characteristics of runoff and climate changes using linear regression,trend analysis and moving average on the basis of the annual data from 1955 to 2010. In addition,the break points of runoff,precipitation and evaporation were detected using Mann-Kendall's test and the cumulative departure method,which were 1995,1997 and 1996,respectively. The linear relationship between years and cumulative runoff,cumulative precipitation,cumulative evaporation from 1955 to 1995 and from 1996 to 2010 was analyzed by statistical analysis methods. The results of cumulative slope rate comparison method showed that the precipitation,evaporation and human activities' contribution to runoff increase accounted for 59. 64%,31. 83%and 8. 53%,respectively. According to the research results,climate change was the main factor of runoff variation.