Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method.
Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method.
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基于定量风险评估方法的上海高速公路热点识别
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph14010020
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发表时间：
2016-12-27
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chen F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen C;Li T;Sun J;Chen F
热点识别（HSID）是高速公路安全管理过程中的第一步和关键步骤。本研究提出一种新的HSID方法，采用定量风险评估（QRA）技术。对于特定站点可能发生的崩溃被视为风险。基于经验贝叶斯方法估计了所有暴露车辆碰撞发生概率的总和。至于交通事故的后果，交通事故不仅可能造成直接损失（如乘员受伤和财产损失），也可能造成间接损失。间接损失用确定性排队图法计算的额外延迟表示。直接损失和间接损失统一货币化，作为该风险的后果。碰撞的潜在成本作为对高风险地点进行排序的标准，可以明确表示为所有通过车辆的碰撞概率和相应的碰撞后果的总和。以上海市城市高速公路为例进行了分析。结果表明，新的HSID QRA方法能够识别出一组真正揭示社会潜在崩溃成本的高风险站点。
Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society.