The relative importance of climate change and the physiological effects of CO2 on freezing tolerance for the future distribution of Yucca brevifolia
The relative importance of climate change and the physiological effects of CO2 on freezing tolerance for the future distribution of Yucca brevifolia
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DOI：
10.1016/s0921-8181(02)00179-0
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发表时间：
2003-03-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Sloan, LC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dole, KP;Loik, ME;Sloan, LC
我们模拟了气候变化导致大气中二氧化碳含量增加以及直接生理影响导致的地理分布的潜在变化。许多研究定量预测了植物物种的地理分布将如何因气候变化而发生变化，但很少有研究还包括大气二氧化碳浓度对植物生理的直接影响。我们模拟了因暴露于升高的二氧化碳而导致的幼苗耐冻性增加在确定约书亚树（丝兰）未来范围中所发挥的作用。温室实验的结果被用来定义当前大气二氧化碳浓度加倍如何改变低温耐受性。我们根据观测气候数据与该物种当前范围之间的相关性，使用判别分析来预测短叶 Y 的分布作为气候的函数。我们利用大气环流模型 (GCM) 生成了二氧化碳加倍条件下的未来气候情景，并将其用作预测分布模型的输入。该模型预测，在未来的气候下，该物种的分布将发生巨大变化，其占据的总面积将略有减少。当包括 CO2 对幼苗耐冻性的直接影响时，该模型预测了一个不同的、稍大的未来分布，表明 CO2 对植物生理学这方面的直接影响可能在确定短叶 Y 的未来分布中发挥重要但次要的作用。 (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V 保留所有权利。
We modeled potential changes in geographic distribution due to increased atmospheric CO2 via climate change as well as direct physiological effects. Numerous studies have quantitatively predicted how the geographic distribution of plant species will shift in response to climate change, but few have also included the direct effects of atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plant physiology. We modeled the role that increased seedling freezing tolerance caused by exposure to elevated CO2 would play in determining the future range of the Joshua Tree (Yucca brevifolia). Results from greenhouse experiments were used to define how a doubling of present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations changes the low-temperature tolerance. We used discrimmant analysis to predict Y brevifolia distribution as a function of climate based on correlations between observational climate data and the current range of this species. We generate a scenario of future climate under doubled CO2 conditions with a general circulation model (GCM) and used this as input for the predictive distribution model. The model predicts that under future climate, the distribution of this species will change dramatically, and that the total area it occupies will decrease slightly. When the direct effects Of CO2 on seedling freezing tolerance are included, the model predicts a different and slightly larger future distribution, indicating that the direct effects Of CO2 on this aspect of plant physiology will likely play a significant but secondary role in determining the future distribution of Y brevifolia. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.