Global Influence of Tropical Pacific Variability with Implications for Global Warming Slowdown
Global Influence of Tropical Pacific Variability with Implications for Global Warming Slowdown
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0496.1
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Chuan-Yang Wang;S. Xie;Y. Kosaka;Qinyu Liu;Xiao‐Tong Zheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chuan-Yang Wang;S. Xie;Y. Kosaka;Qinyu Liu;Xiao‐Tong Zheng
摘要利用多模式集合定量研究了热带太平洋内部变率对全球平均地表温度（GMST）的影响。定义了一个热带太平洋指数（TPI）来跟踪热带太平洋海表温度（SST）的变化。在年际时间尺度上，模拟的GMST与TPI高度相关，但在年代际时间尺度上，这种相关性减弱。时间尺度的依赖性是这样的，从观测，这是占主导地位的年际变化，GMST回归方程将低估的热带太平洋变率的十年GMST响应的大小。地面气温对热带太平洋变率的响应在热带地区较强，而在热带外地区较弱。GMST对TPI的回归系数显示出相当大的模式间变化，主要是因为高纬度地区的差异。结果有重要的意义，计划相互比较的起搏器实验，迫使太平洋变量…
AbstractThe impact of internal tropical Pacific variability on global mean surface temperature (GMST) is quantified using a multimodel ensemble. A tropical Pacific index (TPI) is defined to track tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The simulated GMST is highly correlated with TPI on the interannual time scale but this correlation weakens on the decadal time scale. The time-scale dependency is such that the GMST regression equation derived from the observations, which are dominated by interannual variability, would underestimate the magnitude of decadal GMST response to tropical Pacific variability. The surface air temperature response to tropical Pacific variability is strong in the tropics but weakens in the extratropics. The regression coefficient of GMST against TPI shows considerable intermodel variations, primarily because of differences in high latitudes. The results have important implications for the planned intercomparison of pacemaker experiments that force Pacific variab...