Statistical significances and projections for proton decay experiments
Statistical significances and projections for proton decay experiments
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevd.107.055016
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Prudhvi N. Bhattiprolu;S. P. Martin;J. Wells
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Prudhvi N. Bhattiprolu;S. P. Martin;J. Wells
我们研究了在当前和未来的中微子探测器上质子衰变的排除和发现的统计意义。各种违反直觉的缺陷与频率和修改后的频率统计措施的显着性多通道计数实验进行了讨论，在一般情况下，并举例说明。我们主张保守的贝叶斯动机的统计措施，并作为一个应用程序，我们采用这些措施，以获得目前的质子部分寿命在不同的置信水平的下限，根据超级神冈的数据，概括了90\% CL公布的限制。最后，我们提出了在Hyper-Kamiokande、DUNE、JUNO和THEIA的$p \rightarrow \overline \nu K^+$和$p \rightarrow e^+ \pi^0$衰变通道中质子部分寿命的排除和发现范围的预测。
We study the statistical significances for exclusion and discovery of proton decay at current and future neutrino detectors. Various counterintuitive flaws associated with frequentist and modified frequentist statistical measures of significance for multi-channel counting experiments are discussed in a general context and illustrated with examples. We argue in favor of conservative Bayesian-motivated statistical measures, and as an application we employ these measures to obtain the current lower limits on proton partial lifetime at various confidence levels, based on Super-Kamiokande's data, generalizing the 90\% CL published limits. Finally, we present projections for exclusion and discovery reaches for proton partial lifetimes in $p \rightarrow \overline \nu K^+$ and $p \rightarrow e^+ \pi^0$ decay channels at Hyper-Kamiokande, DUNE, JUNO, and THEIA.