Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions
Livelihoods, Wellbeing and the Risk to Life During Volcanic Eruptions
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DOI：
10.3389/feart.2019.00205
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发表时间：
2019-08-14
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Robertson, Richard E. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barclay, Jenni;Few, Roger;Robertson, Richard E. A.
对最近火山爆发（1986-2015年）造成的死亡和流离失所情况进行的法医分析，使人们能够深入了解影响在高风险环境中保护生命的行动的因素。与许多其他地球物理灾害事件不同的是，火山爆发可能会持续很长时间，而且强度也不一样。这反映在火山死亡的模式中。一项全球调查显示，63%的主要火山死亡发生在活动的第一周之后，其中超过44%的死亡与公民返回既定的高危险区有关。火山爆发期间的疏散时间很长，这使得竞争压力有时间出现。对三次火山危机（圣文森特和格林纳丁斯的拉苏弗里埃、蒙特塞拉特的苏弗里埃山和厄瓜多尔的通古拉瓦）的详细数据的研究表明，维持生计的需要在保护生命方面发挥着重要作用。一个动态的，与拉相关联的（例如，保护资产，放置附件）和推动因素（例如，住房条件差），在高风险时期可能吸引撤离人员返回。类似的考虑也会限制那些有过火山灾害和流离失所经历的人撤离。我们的全球分析表明，这些压力，再加上预测的不确定性和与火山爆发有关的快速地貌变化，意味着在火山爆发期间，人口的身体和社会脆弱性会发生重大变化。持续的生命风险取决于灾害经历和行动;灾害升级的时间尺度及其与警告和行动的关系;以及避难所中的生计和资产保护以及身心健康所能承受的疏散条件的时间尺度。
A forensic analysis of fatalities and displacements from recent volcanic eruptions (1986-2015) provides insights into factors that influence actions to protect life in high-risk environments. Unlike many other geophysical hazard events, volcanic eruptions may be prolonged, and of variable intensity. This is reflected in patterns of volcanic fatalities. A global survey reveals that 63% of primary volcanic deaths occur after the first week of activity, with >44% of these deaths associated with citizens returning to an established high-hazard zone. Evacuations during volcanic eruptions are protracted and this allows time for competing pressures to arise. Examination of detailed data from three volcanic crises (La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Soufriere Hills, Montserrat and Tungurahua, Ecuador) suggests that the need to preserve livelihoods plays a strong role in protecting life. A dynamic, associated with pull (e.g., protecting assets, place attachment) and push factors (e.g., poor shelter conditions), can draw evacuees to return during high-risk periods. Similar considerations can restrain people with previous experience of volcanic hazards and displacement, from evacuating. Our global analysis shows that these pressures, when coupled with forecasting uncertainties and the rapid landscape change associated with volcanic eruptions, mean that the physical and social vulnerability of populations change significantly during the course of an eruption. Ongoing risk to life is shaped by hazard experience and action; timescales of hazard escalation and their relationship to warning and action; and the timescales over which evacuation conditions are tolerable to livelihood and asset preservation, and mental and physical wellbeing in shelters.