Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets
Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/su13137421
复制
发表时间：
2021-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Cohen, Adam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goyal, Rohit;Reiche, Colleen;Cohen, Adam
先进空中交通（AAM）是一个广泛的概念，使消费者能够通过集成和连接的多式联运网络获得按需空中交通，货物和包裹交付，医疗保健应用和紧急服务。然而，一些挑战可能会影响AAM的增长潜力，例如自主飞行，起飞和着陆基础设施的可用性（即，垂直机场），融入空域和其他交通方式，以及与共享自动驾驶汽车的竞争。本文讨论了两个潜在的AAM客运市场-机场班车和空中出租车的市场潜力的需求分析的结果。机场班车市场设想AAM乘客服务，从机场，或沿沿着固定路线之间。空中出租车市场设想了一种更成熟和规模化的服务，在整个城市地区提供按需点对点的乘客服务。使用多方法的方法，包括AAM出行需求建模，蒙特卡罗模拟和约束分析，本研究估计，空中出租车和机场班车市场可以捕获0.5%的模式份额。分析的结论是，AAM可以取代非自由支配行程大于45分钟，但是，自由支配行程的需求将受到消费者支付意愿的限制。这项研究得出的结论是，AAM客运服务可能有82,000名乘客的每日需求，由大约4000个四到五个座位的飞机在美国，在最保守的情况下，每年的市场估值为25亿美元。
Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a broad concept enabling consumers access to on-demand air mobility, cargo and package delivery, healthcare applications, and emergency services through an integrated and connected multimodal transportation network. However, a number of challenges could impact AAM's growth potential, such as autonomous flight, the availability of take-off and landing infrastructure (i.e., vertiports), integration into airspace and other modes of transportation, and competition with shared automated vehicles. This article discusses the results of a demand analysis examining the market potential of two potential AAM passenger markets-airport shuttles and air taxis. The airport shuttle market envisions AAM passenger service to, from, or between airports along fixed routes. The air taxi market envisions a more mature and scaled service that provides on-demand point-to-point passenger services throughout urban areas. Using a multi-method approach consisting of AAM travel demand modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and constraint analysis, this study estimates that the air taxi and airport shuttle markets could capture a 0.5% mode share. The analysis concludes that AAM could replace non-discretionary trips greater than 45 min; however, demand for discretionary trips would be limited by consumer willingness to pay. This study concludes that AAM passenger services could have a daily demand of 82,000 passengers served by approximately 4000 four- to five-seat aircraft in the U.S., under the most conservative scenario, representing an annual market valuation of 2.5 billion USD.