Green growth in Nepal and Bangladesh: Empirical analysis and future prospects
Green growth in Nepal and Bangladesh: Empirical analysis and future prospects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112049
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发表时间：
2021-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Kelly, Scott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baniya, Bishal;Giurco, Damien;Kelly, Scott
尼泊尔和孟加拉国的目标是减少温室气体排放，作为执行《巴黎气候协定》和联合国可持续发展目标的承诺的一部分。此外，两国都在寻求从被归类为低收入国家转向中等收入国家。这项研究分析了1985年至2016年期间尼泊尔和孟加拉国经济增长绿色化的经验证据，并展望了2030年，讨论了它们努力实现环境和经济目标的未来前景。为了分析它们的历史进展，使用了六个绿色增长指标，并使用了能源和物质消耗模型来展望2030年。对于这两个国家来说，能源和物质生产率的提高主要是由经济的结构性变化推动的，经济是从农业经济向服务业经济的过渡。然而，人们发现，这些都不足以实现绿色增长。人们发现，增加可再生能源在能源组合中的份额，并在未来绝对减少能源和物质消耗，不仅对绿化增长，而且对实现上述承诺都很重要。技术变革，如用来自可再生资源的电力取代生物质，可以成为协调气候缓解行动与向中等收入国家类别过渡的可持续战略的一部分。
Nepal and Bangladesh aim to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of their commitments to implementing the Paris Climate Agreement and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In addition, both countries are seeking to move from being categorized as low to middle-income countries. This study analyzes the empirical evidence on greening of economic growth in Nepal and Bangladesh between 1985 and 2016, and looks ahead to 2030 to discuss the future prospects in their efforts to deliver on both environmental and economic goals. To analyze their historical progress, six green growth indicators are used, and to look ahead to 2030, energy and material consumption models are used. For both countries, energy and material productivity improvements were mainly driven by structural changes in an economy, which is a transition from agricultural to service-based economies. Yet these are found to be insufficient to deliver green growth. An increase in the share of renewable energy in the energy mix and the absolute reduction of energy and material consumption in future are found to be important not only for greening the growth but also for delivering abovementioned commitments. Technological changes such as the substitution of biomass by electricity from renewable resources can be a part of sustainable strategy for reconciling the climate mitigation actions with graduation to the middle-income country category.