Guarantee rate of freshwater in a river mouth intruded by saltwater with respect to the joint impact of runoff and tide
Guarantee rate of freshwater in a river mouth intruded by saltwater with respect to the joint impact of runoff and tide
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DOI：
10.2166/hydro.2015.038
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
J. Lian;Wei He;Chao Ma;Kui Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Lian;Wei He;Chao Ma;Kui Xu
盐水入侵对水资源利用是不利的。研究径流和潮汐对盐度的共同影响及盐水入侵的风险具有重要意义。为分析咸潮入侵的风险，提出了临界径流潮位线和淡水保证率两个概念。以南渡江河口为例，建立了三维水动力和盐度数值模型。得到了确定盐水入侵发生的临界径流-潮位线。利用Copula联合分布将数值模型与日水文特征联系起来，对淡水保证率进行量化。得到了不同取水量（0、10 m3/s、20 m3/s、30 m3/s）下的淡水保证率。此外，确定了满足不同保证率（80%、85%、90%、95%、99%）的关键取水点。研究结果可为盐水入侵风险评价和取水口选址决策提供技术支持。
Saltwater intrusion is detrimental to water utilization. It is of vital significance to study the joint impact of runoff and tide on salinity and the risk of saltwater intrusion. To analyze the risk of saltwater intrusion, this paper proposes two concepts: critical runoff–tide level line and guarantee rate of freshwater. Taking Nandu River Estuary in China as a study case, a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic and salinity numerical model is built. Critical runoff–tide level lines are obtained to determine the occurrence of saltwater intrusion. To quantify the guarantee rates of freshwater, copula joint distribution is utilized, which connects the numerical model and daily hydrological characteristics. Guarantee rates of freshwater are obtained under different amounts of water intake (0, 10 m3/s, 20 m3/s, 30 m3/s). In addition, critical locations of water intake that satisfy different guarantee rates (80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%) are identified. All the results will provide technical support for risk evaluation of saltwater intrusion and decisions on water intake location.